With Mississippi as the highest and Vermont the third lowest, the TransUnion Credit Risk Index, a statistic developed to measure the changes in average consumer credit risk within various geographies, increased 1.98 percent from 124.79 in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 127.26 in the first quarter of 2009. On a year-over-year basis, the Credit Risk Index increased 7.10 percent (from 118.83 in the first quarter of 2008), the largest increase for that time period in this decade. The Credit Risk Index is defined as the weighted average probability of 90-day delinquency or worse among consumers in a given region relative to the nation as a whole.On a state basis, Mississippi ranks as the riskiest state in the nation with a Credit Risk Index of 166.45. It is followed closely by Texas (162.59), Nevada (158.97), South Carolina (158.76) and Louisiana (153.84). The least risky states include: North Dakota (82.02), Minnesota (88.53), Vermont (91.82), South Dakota (94.75) and Iowa (95.26).The states that experienced the largest quarterly changes included Nevada (4.25 percent increase), Arizona (4.06 percent increase) and California (3.98 percent increase). Though Louisiana’s Credit Risk Index is the fifth highest in the nation, it is the only state that experienced a drop on a quarterly basis of .03 percent. Arkansas experienced a minimal 0.01 percent gain while Vermont increased 0.52 percent.On a year-over-year basis, Arizona (14.82 percent increase), Nevada (14.38 percent) and California (13.82 percent) had the highest percentage increases. The three states with the lowest yearly percent increases included, Alaska (1.51 percent increase), Vermont (2.17 percent increase) and Kentucky (2.85 percent increase).”The Credit Risk Index is a true barometer of today’s economy, and the first quarter of 2009 indicates that the inherent level of credit risk within the U.S. is now 27.26 percent higher than the level reflected in TransUnion’s consumer credit database at the conclusion of 1998,” said Chet Wiermanski, global chief scientist at TransUnion. “Credit Risk Index data suggest that the growth in consumer credit risk has slowed during the past quarter, a positive note. However, the index remains at an all-time historical high, indicating that delinquencies and foreclosures will continue to rise in the coming months.””It is apparent that many of the states experiencing the highest increases in credit risk are the same when looking at the Credit Risk Index statistic on both a quarterly and yearly basis,” said Wiermanski. “This leads TransUnion to believe that consumers in these states will experience prolonged systemic difficulties in both in their ability to satisfactorily repay their existing credit obligations and in their ability to acquire new credit.”While an individual credit score can be quite powerful and accurate in predicting the probability of delinquency for an individual, the average credit score for a specific geography or customer segment does not accurately portray the level of risk existing within that footprint or segment to the same degree as TransUnion’s Credit Risk Index. This is because most credit scores are built on a non-linear scale, so averaging scores does not yield the correct measure of underlying probability of default. Credit Risk Index is a great instrument for gaining insight into the potential impact of external factors on the credit risk and rate of default within a given region, or for a given population segment, precisely because it accounts for the non-linearity of the underlying credit score,” continued Wiermanski.The Credit Risk Index uses the fourth quarter of 1998 as a baseline for comparison. Therefore it measures changes in consumer credit score distributions relative to the national distribution and delinquency rates as a whole at the end of 1998. This is considered by TransUnion as a representative year of credit performance within the usual dynamic of the historical credit cycle. A value of more than 100 represents a higher level of relative risk.TransUnion’s Credit Risk Index reflects the distribution of consumer credit risk as measured by TransUnion’s TransRisk Account Management Credit Risk Model and is a key metric within TransUnion’s Trend Data database. For comparison purposes, the Credit Risk Index in recent years has generally ranged between 110 and 120, experiencing a one- or two-point shift between quarters.TransUnion’s Trend Data databaseThe source of the underlying data used for this analysis is TransUnion’s Trend Data, a one-of-a-kind database consisting of 27 million anonymous consumer records randomly sampled every quarter from TransUnion’s national consumer credit database. Each record contains more than 200 credit variables that illustrate consumer credit usage and performance. Since 1992, TransUnion has been aggregating this information at the county, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), state and national levels.www.transunion.com/trenddata(link is external)About TransUnionAs a global leader in credit and information management, TransUnion creates advantages for millions of people around the world by gathering, analyzing and delivering information. For businesses, TransUnion helps improve efficiency, manage risk, reduce costs and increase revenue by delivering comprehensive data and advanced analytics and decisioning. For consumers, TransUnion provides the tools, resources and education to help manage their credit health and achieve their financial goals. Through these and other efforts, TransUnion is working to build stronger economies worldwide. Founded in 1968 and headquartered in Chicago, TransUnion employs associates in more than 25 countries on five continents. www.transunion.com/business(link is external)Website: http://www.transunion.com(link is external) Source: TransUnion. CHICAGO, July 9, 2009 /PRNewswire/ —
Looking back to the 2-0 win over Wigan in April that clinched promotion for Burnley, the manager said: ” There were some big games last year, people forget that. “We played Wigan and delivered a fantastic performance, and that’s probably the biggest game these players have played in a long time, because that one clinches what you’re trying to do, and that means a lot to the club, a lot financially, a lot to the area, and of course the kudos of getting promoted. “It’s fair to say the first one against Chelsea, massive club, coming to Turf Moor under the lights with the TV cameras, that’s a big game in itself. “So it’s how the players respond. We work hard on the training pitch to allow them the chance to deliver when that moment comes.” Dyche knows they must make the most of Turf Moor to give themselves the best possible chance of survival. In their only previous season in the Premier League, in 2009/10, Burnley picked up 26 points at home, but only four away and were relegated. “I got the feeling last season that there was a true belief with the fans and the player connection,” said Dyche. “I think they really felt they had a group who were totally motivated towards the shirt and the club and the cause. They’ve come to really understand that and the positivity around that. The Clarets have no chance to ease themselves into the top flight with likely title challengers Chelsea the first visitors to Turf Moor on Monday evening. Much has been made of the considerable differences between the two clubs, but Dyche expects his players to meet the challenge head on. “They certainly will know we need that because the task has gone up again. We want the fans to stay with us of course and they did do last season, even when we had a couple of testing times at home. “We’d go a goal down and there was a calmness to the stadium, a belief that the group would keep going. “We’re renowned for that, we are relentless in the way that we work and the way we approach games and deliver. We’re looking to make sure that’s still intact.” Only striker Sam Vokes, who ruptured the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in March, definitely misses out for Burnley. Summer signings Lukas Jutkiewicz, Michael Kightly, Steven Reid, Marvin Sordell and Matt Taylor will hope to make their Clarets debuts. Jose Mourinho believes Chelsea must learn how to unpick opponents who throw 10 men behind the ball or miss out on the Premier League title again. The Chelsea manager admits his Stamford Bridge side fell short in last term’s title race due to a lack of final-third quality, but Mourinho believes new recruits Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa will help solve that problem. The Portuguese boss admitted Chelsea have worked extensively in pre-season on unpicking opponents who set out solely to nullify his side’s threats. “We need more quality in our football,” said Mourinho. “When you have matches with space and time it’s much easier to play football. “When you don’t have space and time because a lot of football is based around tactics and systems: in a very simple way, everything depends on space and time. “And when you don’t have space and time to play, you need more quality. “We are working exactly in that direction. “We need more quality in our game, and we are working on that. “We have worked on exactly that in training, expecting a team to be defensive and try to close every road to goal.” Last term, Mourinho’s first season in his second managerial tenure at Chelsea, ended with no silverware reward. Defeats like the galling 1-0 home reverse to relegation-battling Sunderland left Mourinho defending his top stars at the time. Now though the Chelsea manager has conceded only sharper build-up play will allow the west London club to break their trophy deadlock. Mourinho has admitted he will face a big test to keep both goalkeeping rivals Petr Cech and Thibaut Courtois happy this term – but did not foresee similar issues in the Blues’ midfield. The Chelsea boss believes Fabregas will offer a new dimension in midfield play this term to complement a host of box-to-box runners. The former Real Madrid and Inter manager said none of his midfielders will command automatic selection – but neither will any be out in the cold. “That is not so tough, because we play 60 matches in a season,” he said. “In this first two weeks it’s one match a week, but after that start the cups, the Champions League and the national team. “So you have to adapt, nobody will feel they are first or second choice. “Mikel, Matic, Ramires, Fabregas, Schurrle, Van Ginkel: so everyone will play, everyone will feel useful, important. “On the field we have a very good balance.” Mourinho will keep Courtois and Cech guessing on who will start on Monday night, while s triker Didier Drogba is expected to shake off an ankle problem. Press Association Burnley boss Sean Dyche hopes the experience of earning promotion against the odds can stand his players in good stead for the tests to come in the Barclays Premier League.