Vermont ranks as one of lowest credit risk states

With Mississippi as the highest and Vermont the third lowest, the TransUnion Credit Risk Index, a statistic developed to measure the changes in average consumer credit risk within various geographies, increased 1.98 percent from 124.79 in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 127.26 in the first quarter of 2009. On a year-over-year basis, the Credit Risk Index increased 7.10 percent (from 118.83 in the first quarter of 2008), the largest increase for that time period in this decade. The Credit Risk Index is defined as the weighted average probability of 90-day delinquency or worse among consumers in a given region relative to the nation as a whole.On a state basis, Mississippi ranks as the riskiest state in the nation with a Credit Risk Index of 166.45. It is followed closely by Texas (162.59), Nevada (158.97), South Carolina (158.76) and Louisiana (153.84). The least risky states include: North Dakota (82.02), Minnesota (88.53), Vermont (91.82), South Dakota (94.75) and Iowa (95.26).The states that experienced the largest quarterly changes included Nevada (4.25 percent increase), Arizona (4.06 percent increase) and California (3.98 percent increase). Though Louisiana’s Credit Risk Index is the fifth highest in the nation, it is the only state that experienced a drop on a quarterly basis of .03 percent. Arkansas experienced a minimal 0.01 percent gain while Vermont increased 0.52 percent.On a year-over-year basis, Arizona (14.82 percent increase), Nevada (14.38 percent) and California (13.82 percent) had the highest percentage increases. The three states with the lowest yearly percent increases included, Alaska (1.51 percent increase), Vermont (2.17 percent increase) and Kentucky (2.85 percent increase).”The Credit Risk Index is a true barometer of today’s economy, and the first quarter of 2009 indicates that the inherent level of credit risk within the U.S. is now 27.26 percent higher than the level reflected in TransUnion’s consumer credit database at the conclusion of 1998,” said Chet Wiermanski, global chief scientist at TransUnion. “Credit Risk Index data suggest that the growth in consumer credit risk has slowed during the past quarter, a positive note. However, the index remains at an all-time historical high, indicating that delinquencies and foreclosures will continue to rise in the coming months.””It is apparent that many of the states experiencing the highest increases in credit risk are the same when looking at the Credit Risk Index statistic on both a quarterly and yearly basis,” said Wiermanski. “This leads TransUnion to believe that consumers in these states will experience prolonged systemic difficulties in both in their ability to satisfactorily repay their existing credit obligations and in their ability to acquire new credit.”While an individual credit score can be quite powerful and accurate in predicting the probability of delinquency for an individual, the average credit score for a specific geography or customer segment does not accurately portray the level of risk existing within that footprint or segment to the same degree as TransUnion’s Credit Risk Index. This is because most credit scores are built on a non-linear scale, so averaging scores does not yield the correct measure of underlying probability of default. Credit Risk Index is a great instrument for gaining insight into the potential impact of external factors on the credit risk and rate of default within a given region, or for a given population segment, precisely because it accounts for the non-linearity of the underlying credit score,” continued Wiermanski.The Credit Risk Index uses the fourth quarter of 1998 as a baseline for comparison. Therefore it measures changes in consumer credit score distributions relative to the national distribution and delinquency rates as a whole at the end of 1998. This is considered by TransUnion as a representative year of credit performance within the usual dynamic of the historical credit cycle. A value of more than 100 represents a higher level of relative risk.TransUnion’s Credit Risk Index reflects the distribution of consumer credit risk as measured by TransUnion’s TransRisk Account Management Credit Risk Model and is a key metric within TransUnion’s Trend Data database. For comparison purposes, the Credit Risk Index in recent years has generally ranged between 110 and 120, experiencing a one- or two-point shift between quarters.TransUnion’s Trend Data databaseThe source of the underlying data used for this analysis is TransUnion’s Trend Data, a one-of-a-kind database consisting of 27 million anonymous consumer records randomly sampled every quarter from TransUnion’s national consumer credit database. Each record contains more than 200 credit variables that illustrate consumer credit usage and performance. Since 1992, TransUnion has been aggregating this information at the county, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), state and national levels.www.transunion.com/trenddata(link is external)About TransUnionAs a global leader in credit and information management, TransUnion creates advantages for millions of people around the world by gathering, analyzing and delivering information. For businesses, TransUnion helps improve efficiency, manage risk, reduce costs and increase revenue by delivering comprehensive data and advanced analytics and decisioning. For consumers, TransUnion provides the tools, resources and education to help manage their credit health and achieve their financial goals. Through these and other efforts, TransUnion is working to build stronger economies worldwide. Founded in 1968 and headquartered in Chicago, TransUnion employs associates in more than 25 countries on five continents. www.transunion.com/business(link is external)Website: http://www.transunion.com(link is external) Source: TransUnion. CHICAGO, July 9, 2009 /PRNewswire/ — read more

Corey Seager’s two home runs lead Dodgers past Giants

first_imgPuig hit a ground ball to shortstop Brandon Crawford that allowed Barnes to score from third base. The next batter, Chris Taylor, continued his own hot July with an RBI double. The score was tied, 4-4, and the stage was set for Seager’s go-ahead home run.“You look at quality of at-bat, quality of contact, even in the last month he’s hit the ball really hard,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said of Seager. “Squaring it up and lining out, hitting balls to the track – it kind of gets distorted a little bit because you don’t see the hits or getting rewarded. But every time he’s in the box I think he’s going to get a hit.”The rally made a winner of Dodgers starting pitcher Alex Wood (12-1), who allowed only a solo home run to Crawford over the first six innings.In the seventh inning, San Francisco sandwiched four hits around Seager’s throwing error to score three runs. The only sure-fire hit was a double to dead center by Gorkys Hernandez, which allowed Nick Hundley to score the Giants’ fourth and final run.Like Seager, Wood seemed more free than usual to reflect upon his mistakes. A win has that effect on a man.“It’s nice when you come out losing 4 to 2 and know that our lineup’s probably going to score a couple runs,” Wood said. “It’s been fun to watch.”Wood (12-1) was charged with four runs, all earned, in seven innings. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out five. A change to his tempo – “I was getting stuck in the middle of my windup,” Wood said – made a noticeable difference compared to his most recent start, his only loss of the season in which the Atlanta Braves scored nine runs in five innings.Brandon Morrow pitched a flawless eighth inning and Kenley Jansen pitched a scoreless ninth, recording his 26th save.The Giants are the National League’s second-worst team by record. At 40-64, they are an unfathomable 32½ games out of first place with more than a third of the season left to play.Yet somehow they began the day with six wins in 10 head-to-head games against the Dodgers this season. When San Francisco took the lead in the seventh inning, a pair of conflicting narratives came to a head: the unpredictability of a century-long rivalry and whatever magic the Dodgers ascribe to their summer swell.Ultimately, Seager gained his atonement. The Dodgers conquered another demon, real or perceived. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, they’ve won 51 consecutive games after leading at any point. That is a major league record. Mistakes like that don’t always stick with a player beyond the moment but “that one did,” Seager said. “That one was hard to move on from. That one, you know, you can accept it if it it’s something that you actually did – you actually made the mistake – but when it slips out of your hand that hurts a little bit more. You’ve got to move on. You’ve got to keep playing.”In the end, Seager could laugh about it. If he looked more excited than usual rounding the bases in the seventh inning, it’s because he was.“It kind of came out of nowhere,” Seager said. “That normally doesn’t happen. That was a fun one, though.”After the Giants quieted the announced crowd of 51,426 in the top of the seventh, a response was needed. Austin Barnes led off the bottom of the inning with a walk against Moore. With one out, Joc Pederson doubled to right-center field, sending Barnes to third base.When Yasiel Puig was announced as a pinch-hitter, Giants manager Bruce Bochy summoned right-handed reliever George Kontos to face the Dodgers’ slugger. The numbers say it was a curious choice; Puig has one home run and a .167 batting average against left-handers this year; 18 home runs and a .285 average against righties. LOS ANGELES >> That low hum in the background of the Dodgers’ current hot streak – six straight wins, 37 in their last 43 – is the bat of Corey Seager. He’s been held hitless only three times in 20 July games. His All-Star-worthy statistics are a byproduct of consistency, not streakiness.Occasionally, there are games like Friday’s.Seager greeted San Francisco Giants pitcher Matt Moore with a solo home run in the first inning of the Dodgers’ 6-4 win. His two-run blast against Josh Osich broke a 4-4 tie in the seventh. It was Seager’s sixth career multi-homer game, in a month that’s seen his batting average go from .294 to .293 – a steadiness that eludes most 23-year-olds.Seager also was responsible for the Dodgers’ only error Friday, an inexplicably bad throw that allowed the Giants to rally from a 2-1 deficit to take a 4-2 lead in the seventh inning.center_img Newsroom GuidelinesNews TipsContact UsReport an Errorlast_img read more