Darwin As Prognosticator

first_imgHow good was Darwin at making predictions?  A good scientific theory should make predictions, at least according to a common assumption about science.  PBS thinks Darwin hit a home run, according to an interactive feature on the website for Judgment Day, the documentary about evolution vs intelligent design shown on Nova this week (11/14/2007).  The commentary below will analyze these 13 predictions, but some other recent stories from science journals show Darwin scoring a much lower batting average:Island dwarfism:  Evolutionary biologists have long believed that animals trapped on islands would evolve into smaller versions of their mainland counterparts.  Not true, say researchers from Imperial College, London.  A catalog of island species shows no such trend; many factors are involved in the size distribution of island species.  The details can be found at PhysOrg and Science Daily.  (Note: the articles do not attribute the prediction to Darwin himself.)Arms race:  If Darwin intended his theory of natural selection to express a law of nature that applies everywhere, it might be difficult to correlate opposite results.  Many evolutionary biologists speak of predators, prey and parasites leading to an “evolutionary arms race” that drives speciation and adaptive radiation, leading to Darwin’s branching tree of life.  An article in Science Daily, however, says that predators and parasites can drive “evolutionary stability.”Parental guidance suggested:  The environment is supposed to drive evolutionary adaptation.  Offspring, facing the mean old world, should get by with the random genetic mutations that improve their survival – not a parental handout.  Taking loans from mom or dad’s genes would indicate a dependency on pre-adaptive resources, innate in the genetic information of the species.  A study at University of Virginia suggests, however, that maternal influences do help offspring adapt to their environment.Birds don’t talk:  What drives speciation in birds?  It should be Darwin’s mechanism of natural selection – of which the Galapagos finches are the textbook example.  In Science last month,1 however, Loren Rieseberg reviewed a new book by Trevor Price, Speciation in Birds, and found that even the textbook case is not open and shut:Of perhaps greater interest are Price’s conclusions about the roles of ecology and social selection in speciation; these remain relatively unexplored subjects about which birds have much to offer.  Closely related species of birds often differ in ecologically important traits–such as body size, habitat preferences, and feeding and migratory behaviors–that are also likely to contribute to both premating and postmating reproductive isolation.  These observations, combined with classic studies of ecologically driven speciation in Darwin’s finches and crossbills, imply that ecological selection likely contributes to most speciation events in birds.  However, Price cautions that divergence of most co-occurring bird species is too ancient to make inferences about the causes of speciation and that studies of recently diverged species, such as Darwin’s finches, highlight the fragility of ecological reproductive barriers.  He concludes that “it is unclear if ecological causes are sufficient or even important in many speciation events.”  This somewhat negative assessment of the role of ecology in speciation is tempered by speculation in later chapters that rapid ecological speciation may account for short branch lengths detected early in the evolution of many bird genera.That sounds like Price debunked Darwin’s speculation, only to replace it with one of his own.  “Interestingly, social selection appears to be more generally important in speciation in birds than sexual selection, despite the emphasis in the literature on the latter,” Rieseberg continued, only to accuse Price of doublethink: “Price also argues that ecological factors are a major cause of divergence in socially selected traits, an assertion that, while strongly supported, seemingly is at odds with his earlier pessimistic assessment of the importance of ecology in speciation.”    Earlier in the review, Rieseberg also noted that Price did not put much credibility in another evolutionary hypothesis, the so-called “founder effect” (i.e., that new colonizers drift genetically into new species).  Whatever the causes of the origin of species, they appear more complex and inscrutable than Darwin had imagined.Opportunity lost:  The genes of 12 species of Drosophila were compared in a massive test of evolution, published in Nature.2  How much opportunity was there for evolution since the species diverged?  The team wrote, “the evolutionary divergence spanned by the genus Drosophila exceeds that of the entire mammalian radiation when generation time is taken into account,” so for the number of generations during which mammals went from mice to giraffes and whales, these little flies should have had ample opportunity to evolve by Darwin’s theory of natural selection.  (Note: the only kind of natural selection of interest here is positive selection for functional advantage; purifying selection gets rid of harmful mutations, and balancing selection tries to offset them.)    The paper mentions evolution and selection numerous times.  A search for innovation turns up empty, though, and examination of instances of positive selection shows no clear cut example of something new and improved arising.  The geneticists looked for markers of positive selection indirectly – fast-changing base pairs in otherwise unchanging sequences.  It is not as straightforward, however, to correlate these changes with new genetic information that provides a functional advantage for the fly.  The clearest example of positive selection they could find was for “helicase activity,” which seems like merely an adjustment in the rate of operation of existing hardware.  They said, “Despite a number of functional categories with evidence for elevated omega [i.e., an indicator of positive natural selection], ‘helicase activity’ is the only functional category significantly more likely to be positively selected.”  In other words, not only are all the 12 species of Drosophila still fruit flies, none of them seemed to exhibit a single clear-cut example of a new functional innovation – despite as many generations as the mammals had for their assumed evolutionary radiation, with all the new capabilities possessed by bats, skunks, hippos and aardvarks.  What was Darwin doing all that time?  It would seem if clear indications of innovation that would vindicate Darwin had been found, it would be the news of the decade.    In the same issue of Nature,3 Ewan Birney commented on the Clark et al study.  “The analysis of positive selection by Clark and colleagues is undoubtedly the broadest and most detailed investigation performed in any clade of multicellular organisms.”  Two species of Drosophila in the study are as different genetically as humans are from other primates, he said.  Though he claimed that the team identified a third of fruit fly genes apparently undergoing positive selection (mostly for the existing immune system and olfactory functions), he did not identify any example of an “upward” change that gave any species a new organ, system, or innovation that would indicate Drosophila was evolving into something better than a plain old fruit fly.  Instead, he indicated that future studies on primates would be required to understand positive evolution: “Clark and colleagues’ findings suggest that, to understand the fascinating adaptive changes among primates, including those unique to humans, we probably need to sequence the genome of every extant primate (and, where possible, any extinct primates with recoverable DNA), using optimal sequencing strategies to obtain both population-level data and accurate genome sequences.”Fossils to the rescue?  Is Darwin’s tree rooted in the rocks?  Gene Hunt undertook a study of “The relative importance of directional change, random walks, and stasis in the evolution of fossil lineages,” and found a lot of stasis.  After his “large-scale, statistical survey of evolutionary mode in fossil lineages,” involving some 250 sequences of evolving traits, he wrote in PNAS,4 “The rarity with which directional evolution was observed in this study corroborates a key claim of punctuated equilibria and suggests that truly directional evolution is infrequent or, perhaps more importantly, of short enough duration so as to rarely register in paleontological sampling.”  Darwin did not predict punctuated equilibria.  The core of his theory was that changes occurred imperceptibly, gradually and cumulatively.  In addition, he knew that the fossil record was characterized by large gaps, but predicted that the new fossil discoveries would fill in those gaps, revealing his hoped-for branching evolutionary tree.  Hunt found only 5% of fossil lineages could be attributed to directional evolution.  Of the rest that showed change over time, it was mostly for body size, not body shape.  This does not seem to be a vindication for Darwin’s prognosticative powers.  In the evolutionary rat race, if a bigger or smaller rat wins, it is still just a rat.Scientific literature does present occasional successes for Darwin, such as this claimed vindication at Queens University for Darwin’s controversial hypothesis of sympatric speciation.  But the score is mixed.  One study never undertaken is how Darwin’s predictions would rank against those of astrology.1.  Loren H. Rieseberg, “…And a Partridge in Allopatry,” Science, 12 October 2007: Vol. 318. no. 5848, p. 198, DOI: 10.1126/science.1147892.2.  Clark et al, “Evolution of genes and genomes in the Drosophila phylogeny,” Nature 450, 203-218 (8 November 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06341.See also an article in Science Daily that lamented the difficulty this study uncovered about identifying what is a gene.3.  Ewan Birney, “Evolutionary genomics: Come fly with us,” Nature 450, 184-185 (8 November 2007) | doi:10.1038/450184a.4.  Gene Hunt, “The relative importance of directional change, random walks, and stasis in the evolution of fossil lineages,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, published online before print November 14, 2007, 10.1073/pnas.0704088104.We have reported numerous times when Darwin predicted something and the opposite was found (e.g., 11/13/2007, 11/09/2007, 10/17/2007).  Charlie has struck out again and again, yet his fans never give up.    The PBS Judgment Day program (11/14/2007) made a big deal about how “scientific” Darwin’s theory was.  For support, the PBS website offered an interactive feature listing 13 of “Darwin’s Predictions” that supposedly came true.  This was presented to trick students and visitors into thinking Darwin has an impressive batting average.  Let’s look at them and see if Charlie can make it to first base at least.  The PBS feature begins with a dramatic star spangled banner, asking Jose if he can see the Darwin’s early light:Ahead of his time is putting it moderately for Charles Darwin.  The father of evolution had conjectures that were only proved, or greatly substantiated, decades after his death in 1882, in some cases not until recently.  Today, evidence that unequivocally supports his theory of evolution by natural selection, as well as other surmises he had, comes from an array of scientific disciplines, including paleontology, geology, biochemistry, genetics, molecular biology, and, most recently, evolutionary developmental biology, or “evo devo.”  “The notion that all these lines of evidence could converge and give a common answer to the question of where we came from is truly powerful,” says Brown University biologist Kenneth Miller.  “This is the reason why scientific support for the theory of evolution is so overwhelming.”A pretty dramatic overture indeed, provided there is power behind the sound system.  Here are the 13 pitches for Darwin to swing at.  Keep in mind these are all supposed to be predictions by Darwin that were confirmed by science.  Unfortunately, since the Darwin Party owns the stadium and both teams, which are sworn to make Charlie look good, all we can do is umpire from the sidelines when they break the rules.Evo-devo:  “Evolution happens,” the first entry announces triumphantly.  Something else on bumper stickers also happens, but we won’t press the point.    Right off the bat, we notice them including evo-devo in the victory circle with little more than an unsupported assertion followed by the favorite Darwin Party quote that nothing in biology makes sense except in the darkness of evolution.  Last month, however, Ron Amundson, in a Science Magazine book review (318:5850, pp. 571-572, 10/26/2007) portrayed evolutionary genetics and evolutionary embryology (of which evo-devo is the latest incarnation) as antagonists in a long tug-of-war between biologists about where the seat of evolution lies.  This is essentially the battle between saltationism and gradualism in embryo.  So for PBS to claim evo-devo is a friend of Darwin is a little like Coriolanus embracing Aufidius.  They are reluctant allies who would as soon stab one another except for the common enemy, the creationists.Verdict: this is not even a pitch; it’s just Darwin fans rooting in the stands.Natural selection:  “Evolution happens through natural selection,” the next entry states.  We thought that was the question at issue.  Ever hear of begging the question?  This is no prediction; it assumes what needs to be proved.  There it is, right before your eyes, a totally begged question, complete with another favorite D.P. quote that natural selection is “the greatest idea anyone ever had,” followed by a Big Lie by Niles Eldredge that nothing in 175 years has contravened it (even his own competing theory of punctuated equilibria?).Verdict: this is a little dance on the pitcher’s mound getting applause from the Darwin fans again.  No ball has been pitched yet.  We’re getting impatient.For rebuttals that show natural selection does not work as advertised, and has been essentially falsified, see 11/29/2004 and, more recently, 11/13/2007 and 10/17/2007. Galapagos finches:  This was no prediction.  Darwin found the finches while a creationist, then much later worked them into his evolutionary theory.  But even if you allow a postdiction to count as a prediction, it is irrelevant, because even young-earth creationists allow for the microevolution seen in finch beaks.Verdict: When are you going to pitch a ball, PBS?  We want a pitcher, not a Lucy itcher.  We’re starting to boo from the sidelines while the hysterical fans go ape.Genetics:  Finally, a pitch.  Darwin swings and misses.  His theory of pangenesis was discredited almost as soon as it hit the shelves.  He knew nothing of DNA, and did not predict anything like a code in the cell which, to him, was a simple blob of protoplasm.Verdict: Strike one.  For the Darwin party to give Charlie credit for DNA and molecular biology as a prediction of his theory is like giving Walt Whitman credit for the internet.Antisupernaturalism:  What?  That is the very question under consideration.Verdict: Foul!  Illegal procedure!  This is no pitch; it is another egregious case of begging the question.Embryology:  This is indistinguishable from #1.  It’s evo-devo again.  PBS failed to point out the Haeckel’s embryo hoax that sprang right out of Darwin’s own speculations.  The shared genetic toolkit is no prediction of Darwin’s theory; it is an evidence that complex design was there from the beginning.Verdict: No pitch.  Sending the evo-devo clown out on the field for another cheer from the fans is a distraction.Sexual selection:  OK, here’s a real pitch.  Darwin did predict sexual selection would drive sexual dimorphism.  (Actually, this is just another postdiction, because peacocks were already well known in his time.)  The theory is controversial (02/26/2003), but at best, a peacock with radical tail feathers is still a peacock, not a new animal.  Sexual selection does not explain the origin of new species.Verdict: Ball One.Common ancestry:  Ken Miller states, “Despite the extraordinary diversity of life, all living organisms share a nearly identical set of essential genes, reflecting their evolutionary development from a common ancestor.”  Yet Darwin’s view was one not of “immortal” traits, nor of anything that has “survived essentially unchanged for over two billion years.”  Darwin’s world is a fluid picture of gradual, incessant change, not stasis.Verdict: More evo-devo.  More begging the question.  Common ancestry is the question under debate, not a prediction!  They are not learning their lesson.  This elicits a cheer from the fans in the stands, but no ball was pitched.Human evolution:  “Humans evolved from an ape-like ancestor,”  the next slide announces triumphantly, again begging the question.  As support, the slide borrows an ancient 1863 Huxley drawing, and then repeats the discredited whopper that human and chimpanzee genes are 99% similar (see 06/29/2007).  No fossil evidence is presented.  They repeat Darwin’s speculation that “the difference between the mind of man and that of a chimpanzee or gorilla is a matter of degree, not of kind.”  What did they do to interpolate this, interview Lucy or something?  It’s not like creationists have failed to notice similarities and differences between humans and apes for thousands of years; so what has Charlie done to prove his condition that we evolved from them?Verdict: Begged question, no evidence.  Ball Two.Modern humans arose in Africa:  Evidence is presented from phylogenetic trees and alleged hominid bones, most of which were found in Africa.  This argument fails to recognize the selective effect of doing most of the digging in Africa, and the circular nature of finding Darwin trees in the genes, when unbiased analysis finds no tree (10/08/2007) and declares phylogenetic tree-building a function of assumptions (01/18/2006).Verdict: the ball curves chaotically through the batter’s box, making any contact with the bat a matter of luck, not skill.  Ball Three.Old earth:  This was not a prediction of Darwin.  Hutton, Lyell and other geologists had already decided long before The Origin to believe in an old earth, and they began interpreting the strata through that lens.  Regardless of debates on the age of the earth, Darwin gets no credit for predicting it.Verdict: Strike Two.Fossils:  Precambrian fossils?  Missing links?  Gaps filled in with transitional forms? (see 10/15/2007 commentary on the PBS offerings, under numbered bullets #1).  The gall of these people to use the most damaging evidence against Darwin’s theory as support for it!Verdict: Strike Three.Moth tongue:  OK, Charlie struck out, but we’ll entertain his final little just-so story, his lucky #13, as he walks to the dugout.  He predicted a pollinator with a foot-long tongue would be found to pollinate a peculiar orchid, and by golly, one was found 40 years later.  Awesome, dude.  Cowabunga.  Way to go.  Ahem.  The moth was still a moth, not some other animal, and the orchid was still an orchid.  None of this is germane to the question of the origin of species.  Since even young-earth creationists allow for dramatic variations of traits within kinds (look at dogs), this pitch is too little, too late.Verdict: Don’t quit your day job, prognosticator.  Go breed some pigeons.  Be sure to use intelligent design.So Charlie is out.  He has failed to hit a single pitch from the list of predictions.  He couldn’t even walk to first base, because the pitcher kept dancing on the mound.    We hate to hurt a guy’s feelings when he’s down, but must point out that even if he had struck a homer, it wouldn’t have mattered.  You see, scientists and philosophers have known for a long time that predictability is no assurance of validity.  There is an inherent logical fallacy in making and fulfilling predictions, called the fallacy of Affirming the Consequent (see Wikipedia for a convenient summary): “If P then Q; Q is true, therefore P is true.”  This is a non-sequitur; there are other things than P that could have been the cause of Q.  Example: Columbus told the natives that their gods were angry because of their treatment of his sailors, and were going to punish them by turning the moon blood-red.  It happened!  Columbus was good at predicting a lunar eclipse, but the natives believed the gods were angry, and treated him with much more respect.  If you take a placebo because the experimenter tells you it will make you feel better, and you feel better, it doesn’t mean the placebo cured you.  Astrologers and pseudoscientists for centuries have used this fallacy to their advantage.    The problem is even more serious at a deeper level.  Philosophers of science since Pierre Duhem (late 19th century) have pointed out that theories are underdetermined by facts.  No matter how many facts your theory can incorporate, or how many successful predictions it can make, there are always a nearly infinite number of other theories that could account for the phenomena.  That’s why Popper proposed falsifiability as a criterion for good science.  Many would argue that Darwinism has already been falsified, but then Popper is not the last word, either.  Philosophy of science, the attempt to give a rational justification for scientific claims and discriminate good science from pseudoscience, has undergone multiple revolutions in the 20th century alone.  There remains no consensus even today.  All agree now, however, that the ability to make predictions is neither necessary nor sufficient to claim a theory is scientific.  So even if Charlie had hit the ball, the game wasn’t valid in the first place.  There is no joy in Dudville.  Mighty Charlie has struck out.  The officials, meanwhile, had already abrogated the game and declared it nugatory.(Visited 32 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0last_img read more

Fake News on Education Bills

first_imgSecular reporters, for the life of them, can’t get their facts right. When it comes to the teaching of evolution, knees jerk, kicking the boilerplate machine into programmed output.A proposed bill in South Dakota, called an “academic freedom bill” (SB 55) simply says this:No teacher may be prohibited from helping students understand, analyze, critique, or review in an objective scientific manner the strengths and weaknesses of scientific information presented in courses being taught which are aligned with the content standards established pursuant to § 13-3-48.Sound fair enough? Not to the secular press. One would think all hell broke loose, and we’re headed back into the dark ages. The story by AP reporters James Nord and Hannah Weikel hit the fan, splattering lies around the world as all the major media echoed it uncritically. The AP gives the impression that sneaky creationists were kicking Darwin out of science class and replacing it with the Bible, God and the dreaded c-word, creationism. Anyone see any of that in the bill’s language?At Evolution News & Views, David Klinghoffer tries to set the record straight, pointing out multiple lies in the AP story. But without the automatic multiplication factor of the AP, whose pronouncements are treated like the word of the gods by mainstream media editors looking for blood, it’s doubtful readers will see his corrections. The bill says nothing about alternatives to evolution. It does not insert intelligent design. It does not change the curriculum. It does not change the content standards. It does not diminish the teaching of Darwinian evolution. In fact, if anything, it augments it, helping students to learn how to think about science. What a concept! Thinking in public school!How is it that learning to analyze, review, and critique scientific information in an objective manner would set off a firestorm of protest by scientists and professional educators? Isn’t that their job? What has happened to America, when less than a century ago these same pro-evolutionists were seeking academic freedom for their views?In an earlier post at Evolution News & Views, Klinghoffer found it surreal to see how organizations can contradict their own stated purposes:But with evolution proponents, such distortions are absolutely routine. It’s bizarre. It’s farcical. But this tops it. In a surreal move, a group called the National Coalition Against Censorship has plunged into the South Dakota situation to demand continued restraints on teachers and their academic freedom — in other words, censorship.Some of these academic-freedom bills have simply tried to protect teachers from punishment if they dare to mention that Darwinism might have some difficulties, say with the Cambrian explosion or the complexity of the cell. But in these days when pushing DOPE is mandatory, just mentioning scientific weaknesses of evolution at all – controversies openly acknowledged by evolutionists in the scientific journals – can put a teacher at risk. One complaint by a student or parent is enough to send out the attack dogs of the ACLU or Americans United, threatening lawsuits. And reporters will pump out the boilerplate.Would Darwin like what his disciples are doing? He said in Origin, “A fair result can be obtained only by fully stating and balancing the facts and arguments on both sides of each question.” He might be appalled to see that his theory would need such protection from understanding, analyzing, critiquing or reviewing his facts and arguments in an objective manner when he himself acknowledged many difficulties in his own theory.Without South Dakota’s law, it could be illegal to quote certain passages from The Origin of Species, like chapter VI, “Difficulties on Theory” that acknowledges the sudden appearance of animals in the fossil record as “perhaps the most obvious and gravest objection which can be urged against my theory.” Try that as a tactic, state legislators: put The Origin of Species on the banned books list!We’re doing our part at CEH to provide the “facts and arguments” on the other side of the question. That’s the only avenue available these days: bypass the lame-stream media that disobeys Darwin’s dictum. Get the information out through alternative channels. You can help by shaming the liars back into Journalism Ethics 101 class. Send well-written, factual responses to fake-news stories when written by shoddy journalists not living up to the standards of their profession. Fight darkness with light. Light wins every time. (Visited 52 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0last_img read more

Berg dam nears completion

first_img27 October 2005The first water from the Berg Water Project near Franschhoek will flow through Cape Town’s taps in two years’ time, 18 years after the project was first mooted.The project will yield about 81-million cubic metres annually by the end of 2007, an 18% increase in the yield of the Western Cape water system. The gross storage capacity of the dam will be 130-million cubic metres.Highest dam wall in South AfricaThe structure, currently about 30% complete, will boast the highest concrete-faced, rock-filled dam wall in South Africa. The dam wall, including its foundation, will be 70 metres high and 990 metres long.It is a unique project, says Mike Killick, the city of Cape Town’s head of bulk water resource and infrastructure planning.The debt raised to finance the project will be repaid by the implementing and funding agent, TCTA, through income from the sale of water to the city of Cape Town.In today’s terms the project will cost between R1.4-billion and R1.5-billion.Water savingsHowever, there is one condition: Capetonians will have to achieve a 20% water saving by 2010, a target that is well on track, says Killick.The project comprises a dam on the farm Skuifraam, about 6 kilometres outside Franschhoek, and a pumping scheme about 9 kilometres away. The project involves the erection of a dam wall on the Berg River and a supplement scheme, also on the Berg River, but downstream of the confluence of the Dwars River.The supplementary scheme includes pump stations and about 10 kilometres of pipelines to transfer water from the abstraction works in the Berg River to the dam and into the Western Cape water system.The process began in 1989, when the Department of Water Affairs and the city council initiated the Western Cape systems analysis, which looked at water available to the city, other local authorities and agriculture.The project is a good example of intergovernmental co-operation between the City of Cape Town, the national Department of Water Affairs and TCTA.Source: CITYWORKS Want to use this article in your publication or on your website?See: Using SAinfo materiallast_img read more

Budget 2013: lion’s share for education

first_img27 February 2013South Africa will spend more than R23-billion on beefing up school infrastructure and increasing the number of no-fee schools this year, with education once more receiving the biggest slice – R232.5-billion – of the country’s R1.06-trillion 2013 National Budget.Delivering his Budget speech in Parliament in Cape Town on Wednesday, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said that over the medium term, the Basic Education Department would be expected to use some of its budget to improve numeracy and literacy, expand enrolment in Grade R and reduce the school infrastructure backlog.R1-billion will go to the country’s nine provinces to increase the number of teachers, while about R700-million will be channelled towards the technical secondary schools recapitalisation grant.“This will finance construction and refurbishment of 259 workshops and training of over 1 500 technology teachers,” Gordhan said.The education infrastructure grant is critical to government’s plans of eradicating unsafe and poor quality school structures, as it supplements the infrastructure programme in provinces to accelerate the construction, maintenance and upgrading of new and existing schools.Up to R8-billion has been allocated to the school infrastructure backlog grant, which was established in 2011. The grant aims to ensure that schools have basic services such as water, sanitation and electricity.R24.6-billion for universities, collegesThe allocation to higher education institutions will increase from just over R20-billion in the previous financial year to R24.6-billion over the next three years, Gordhan said.He confirmed that construction of two new universities, in Mpumalanga and the Northern Cape, would finally commence this year, with the authorities expecting an increase in student enrolment at South Africa’s higher education institutions from 910 000 to 990 000 by 2015.In recent years, government has also increased funding to help students from poor backgrounds obtain tertiary education and vocational training.The Student Financial Aid Scheme will provide loans and bursaries to 288 188 students from poor backgrounds in 2013/14, up from just over 118 000 in 2008/9.To increase access to basic education, the Budget notes the expansion of no-fee schools in South Africa to 20 688 by the end of 2012.Source: SAnews.gov.zalast_img read more

Corn Stocks Galore

first_imgShare Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest By Alan BruglerDTN Contributing AnalystThe stars for Friday’s USDA reports were clearly the Planting Intentions for 2019 corn and soybeans, with large corn stocks (as of March 1) getting the award for best supporting actor in a bear costume. USDA showed intentions for 92.792 million acres (ma) of corn in 2019, with soybeans at 84.617 ma. The former was up 3.66 ma from last year, while soybeans were down 4.579 ma. Traders, analysts and even random guys at coffee shops were expecting some shift to soybeans and corn, but the degree of shifting caught some by surprise. I’ll also argue that the data showed a big implied increase in unplanted acres. Let’s deal with that one first.The top table shows what USDA calls Principal Crop Acres for 2019 based on the Planting Intentions report. Please note, that hay is only shown by USDA as a harvested number, and there was no number for rye, so I used a plug number. I combined several types of edible beans on one line, and caught things like potatoes in the Miscellaneous category.Note that primary crops totaled 315.352 ma, which is 4.226 ma below last year. Either folks were sandbagging in the surveys or they were literally sandbagging and expecting that nothing would be planted in their fields this year.A small part of the difference may be double-crop soybean intentions, which create acres out of thin air and subtract them the same way. With lower winter wheat plantings and lower soy prices you tend to get fewer double-crop beans. That said, prevented planting “plans” or “suspicions” likely account for much of the shortfall.If we plug in 5.5 million prevented planting (PP) acres, our bottom line total for planted, CRP and PP is within 617,000 ma of last year and 2 ma plus from 2017. Is 5.5 ma realistic?My second table shows only 1.9 ma were prevented in 2018, but 6.6 ma were on the sidelines in 2015 and 8.3 ma in 2013. There is a price to pay for claiming prevented planting. The check you get isn’t large compared to what you can make on a good crop, and claims in any kind of insurance tend to raise future premiums. You do it because you have to. If it stays wet, the 5.5 ma for PP could be conservative.Now back to the corn and soybeans. The main questions I got following the acreage report went something like this, “Isn’t that corn number too high? Isn’t it likely to shrink due to prevented planting or switching to soybeans?”Perhaps a little, but not a lot.Here are my reasons:1. The survey was focused on the first 10 days of March, but data was taken up to March 19. If you were in the Western Corn Belt, that period was about as bleak as it gets. You were already being flooded, or you were staring at 20 inches or more of snow that had been there seemingly forever. You weren’t likely to overstate your corn intentions. The soy-to-corn ratio says to grow more corn. Anything below 2.3:1, which we had last fall, says to grow a lot more corn. Ratios below 2.5:1 still suggest a little creep toward corn and away from beans. The market has spent much of 2019 in the 2.3 to 2.4 range.2. A peek at corn planting intentions by state versus a year ago shows higher planned acreage for the entire Corn Belt (except Missouri and Ohio) and also in the Southeast and the Northern Plains. Those with more favorable moisture profiles are also planning to plant more corn. Therefore, Friday’s numbers were fundamentally bearish for corn, but probably not as much as the price movement would have you believe. The low acreage for soybeans wasn’t particularly supportive, because cutting 4.579 ma at 50 bushels per acre only cuts 229 ma from the total supply. Current old-crop ending stocks are expected to be 900 ma. There is plenty of fat there. Yes, a China purchase deal could change that fairly quickly, but the deal isn’t signed yet. As my grandma always said, don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched.Alan Brugler may be reached at alanb@bruglermktg.com(BE/BAS)© Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.last_img read more

With Beats, Apple Could Buy The Future Of Music Instead Of Inventing It Again

first_imgWhen Apple opened the iTunes Store in 2003, the company launched the digital music revolution as we know it. Ten years later, you might pay Apple $1.29 instead of 99 cents for a song, but otherwise we’re still mostly living in the musical universe Apple ushered in. Nothing else has come along to disrupt the music industry at the scale of Napster, the iPod or iTunes—at least yet. But shhh … hear that? Once a distant underground rumble, seismic echoes of the streaming music movement are now starting to shake the walls. Last year saw the first yearly drop in digital music sales ever. Assuming that Apple’s much murmured-about $3.2 billion deal to buy Beats Electronics comes to pass, the acquisition could be actually pretty cheap earthquake insurance.See also: Get Ready For The Streaming-Music Die-OffIndividually, on-demand streaming music services like Spotify, Rdio, and Rhapsody are starved for paid users, openly struggling for a bigger piece of a pie that isn’t even on the table yet (it’s still at the iTunes table). But collectively, these services become more than the sum of their parts—and more than enough to spook Apple into buying a little cheap insurance. (Oh, yeah, I guess Apple would score those flashy headphones, too.)Streaming Music Rears Its Many HeadsGaining traction as an even more effortless alternative to Apple’s pay-per-song model, subscription music services are finally generating some major tectonic moves, pushing digital song sales down 5.7% in 2013. Annual digital album sales slipped for the first time too, down 0.1% from 117.7 million to 117.6 million.Considering that digital music sales weathered the 2008 financial collapse without contracting, it’s clear that would-be digital music buyers have stumbled onto a cooler, easier way to listen to music, even if it’s taken them a good ten years. It’s no coincidence that Apple is shopping for an on-demand streaming service right now; the times they are a-changin’. Apple remains the top dog digital music vendor, but if the market moves to a different model altogether, it won’t be pioneering this time around. In fact, Apple already tried to figure out a social music service and failed spectacularly(R.I.P.Ping). We can’t just assume that Apple has some mind-blowing vision for the future of digital music squirreled away somewhere. These days, Apple isn’t light-years ahead like it was with iTunes and the iPod. The landscape is different now—and so is the company. Still, it deserves credit for breeding the iPod with a phone and spreading the iPhone gospel far and wide. Buying Stuff: Cheaper Than InnovationThe company’s crystal ball may not be quite as clear as it used to be, but while it was fogging over, Apple managed to stockpile a cartoonishly huge $159 billion in cash. Assuming that Apple does indeed buy Beats, it might just be easier to pay the fortune teller these days than to get a new crystal ball. Or pay the guy who paid the other fortune teller—in this case MOG, the on-demand music app that Beats acquired two years ago for around $10 million and remixed into its own on-demand streaming app.In digital music, Apple needs only to maintain its lead into the next paradigm shift, and it’s already been working on that. Last September, Apple launched iTunes Radio, a Pandora-like streaming music service that quickly jumped to third place in overall streaming market share.Not the industry prognosticator we once knew, Apple’s ear is to the ground like the rest of us, while its hands are in the deepest pockets around. We kind of miss when they weren’t quite so deep. Tags:#Apple#beats#beats electronics#beats headphones#digital music#music taylor hatmaker Related Posts 9 Books That Make Perfect Gifts for Industry Ex…center_img 12 Unique Gifts for the Hard-to-Shop-for People… 4 Keys to a Kid-Safe App 5 Outdoor Activities for Beating Office Burnoutlast_img read more

Child Maltreatment Before and After Deployment

first_imgBy Rachel Dorman, MS & Heidi Radunovich, PhDFamily violence can have a devastating impact on everyone in the home, especially children. Children are vulnerable to being exposed to or experiencing violence in homes where family violence occurs. Thomsen, Rabenhorst, McCarthy, Milner, Travis, Foster, and Copeland (2014), sought to learn more about the relationship between frequency of child maltreatment and the offending parent’s stage of deployment.[Flickr, model: Jo by Deepjoy Tang, CC BY-ND 2.0] Retrieved on September 22, 2015Thomsen and colleagues (2014) examined incidents of child maltreatment that occurred during an 85 month period when the offending parent was an active duty United States Air Force member who had combat related deployment during Operation Iraqi Freedom or Operation Enduring Freedom. The study accomplished this by merging two databases for analysis: the United States Air Force Family Advocacy System of Records and a deployment database. After merging the two databases, the study consisted of 2,287 children who had experienced maltreatment either pre-deployment or post-deployment from their USAF parent. Children were considered to be eligible for the study if they had experienced maltreatment from an active duty USAF parent, who was not married to another service member and had served in one or more combat-related deployments during OIF or OEF. The study reported 2,563 incidents of substantiated maltreatment in the 2,287 child victims. Researchers found that overall incidence of child maltreatment REDUCED after deployment. However, moderate to severe abuse was more likely after deployment, and use of alcohol further increased the likelihood of abuse. However, milder forms of child abuse were much more common prior to deployment.[Flickr, Plastered 20 365 by Rafiq Sarlie, CC BY-ND 2.0] Retrieved on September 17, 2015The researchers encourage future studies to examine what could account for the lower incidence of mild abuse after deployment. They hypothesize that stressors might be lower after deployment, or perhaps growth and maturity could occur over time to reduce the level of mild child maltreatment. Thomsen and colleagues (2014)recommend that clinicians be vigilant in the identification of moderate to severe child maltreatment in post-deployment homes, because children seem to be more at risk at that time. To learn more about child maltreatment please check out our previous blogs on the topic:Child Maltreatment PreventionMilitary Child Maltreatment, Deployment, and Future ResearchResource Discovery on child maltreatmentAlso, we have an archived webinar that explores attachment issues, neurology and interventions for children suffering from trauma.References[1] Thomsen, C., Rabenhorst, M., McCarthy, R., Milner, J., Travis, W., Foster, R., & Copeland, C. (2014). Child maltreatment before and after combat-related deployment among active-duty United States Air Force maltreating parents. Psychology of Violence, 4(2), p. 143 – 155. DOI: 10.1037/a0031766 This post was written by Rachel Dorman, M.S. and Heidi Radunovich, PhD, members of the MFLN Family Development (FD) team which aims to support the development of professionals working with military families. Find out more about the Military Families Learning Network FD concentration on our website, on Facebook, on Twitter, YouTube, and on LinkedIn.last_img read more

How to Create an Animated Envelope in After Effects

first_imgLearn to create line art animation for your videos in this step-by-step After Effects tutorial.Line art refers to a style that uses generally one color and one stroke weight. In this tutorial, we will create a line art envelope icon that animates on and off for use in looping gifs. Here’s the finished product:You can watch the tutorial below.Download Free Animated Envelope TemplateWant to follow along with the tutorial? Simply download the free project file by hitting the button below.DOWNLOAD FREE ANIMATED ENVELOPE PROJECT FILE FOR AFTER EFFECTS Step 0Create a new composition. Since we’re working with a .gif output, we don’t need to adhere to any broadcast standards. For this piece, we’re working with a 640 by 640 pixel composition size, 5 seconds long, at 29.97 frames per second.Step 1Make a new white solid to serve as your background.Step 2The next step is to get the circle in place. Double click on the Ellipse Tool and change the fill to none and the stroke to 10px, then pick a dark color for the line. This will draw a circle the same size as your composition, which in this case is 640 by 640. Twirl into the shape layer to access the contents and change the size of the ellipse to 450 by 450. A circle is a nice, clean way to frame our icon, and it sets up an easy exit at the end of the animation when it swallows the icon.To animate on the circle, we use the trim paths. Add a trim path to the ellipse group and keyframe both the end and offset property. The end should start at 0% and animate on to 100% in 1 second. At the same time, the offset should animate from 30 degrees to 90 degrees.Finally you will want to use round caps and round joins on the stroke of your circle. Throughout this tutorial, all strokes should be 10 pixels thick with round caps and joins.Step 3Now we need an envelope. This begins with a rectangle. You can double click on the rectangle tool with nothing selected to produce a rectangle the same size as your composition and then edit the details by twirling down into the contents of the new layer. This rectangle should have a white fill, the same color as your background, and a black stroke, the same color as your circle. This project will use only these two colors. You should also match the stroke of the circle in thickness and roundness. Change the size of the envelope to 300 by 175 pixels.We animate this layer on by adding trim paths, and instead of animating the end of the path from 0 to 100, we animate both the start and end from 50 to 0 for the start and 100 for the end. This trims the path to write on from the middle outward. This should produce a line that writes on from corner to corner.You will want to easy ease the first keyframes, but leave the last one linear so the animation starts slowly and accelerates to a constant speed by the time the animation has completed.Step 4That leads us to the next section, where we animate on the flap of the envelope. We create the flap by duplicating the “envelope back” layer and converting the rectangle path to points. It is also best to parent the flap to the back and position the envelope lower so that when the flap opens, the image is balanced.This will allow us to remove one of the points and move another to form a triangle. I recommend using the grid to line up the middle point exactly in a predictable position. We can remove the keyframes for the start of the trim paths and only use the end property to animate on the flap from 0 to 100. This should begin one frame before the “envelope back” completes and end around 20 seconds in. You will want to change the first keyframe to linear and the last to eased. This will create a smooth transition and the illusion that the envelope and the flap share the same back line.Now you’ll likely notice the fill of the flap is making an ugly little overhang. You can keyframe the opacity of the file so that it is not visible before the animation completes. Once the trim paths is finished writing on the flap, you can set the opacity to 100. Set these keyframes to be hold keyframes if you like or just situate them right against each other.Finally, we need this flap to open. To do this, we will simple keyframe the path. Twirl into the contents of the shape and keyframe the path. The start state should be flap-down. The end state should be the open envelope. Just move the middle point up to the new position. You’ll want both of those keyframes eased, and you’ll want to pull the handles of the last keyframe to have 100% influence. This makes a nice acceleration curve for the movement.Step 5If we’re going to put a letter in the envelope, we need to form the front of the envelope. We will again duplicate the “envelope back” layer, convert the rectangle to points, and instead of deleting points, add one in the middle of the top line. Bring that point to match the location of the tip of the flap. This layer will remain mostly unchanged. You should also parent it to the envelope back. This layer doesn’t need to animate on, and you should trim it in time to exist only after the trim paths have resolved for the layers that make up the envelope. You can just delete the trim paths from this layer entirely. This layer should also live above the envelope back but below the flap.Step 6So we have an envelope that animates on and then opens up. Now we need a letter to come out of the envelope. We can again duplicate the envelope back so we don’t have to tweak any fills or strokes. And we may want to solo this layer as we’re working on it and rename it “letter” or something useful.This layer is going to be the page that exits the envelope and flops over. However, this will only be one half of the flop. The bend that happens in the paper is made of two layers, and together they form the illusion that one piece of paper is flopping out of an envelope.To make the first part of the flow we will first enlarge the rectangle path in the letter layer. Then we will add another rectangle path and convert that to a bezier path. We then make it taller and add points to the top to make the curve.Then we will add a merge paths to these and set the merge method to “intersect,” so we will only see where the two paths overlap each other. After that, we can move the rectangle path up and down to reveal more or less of the curved path. We then set keyframes to make the rectangle change position and move all the way up the layer until only one line is visible at the top of the shape.This layer should be between the envelope’s back and front. However, it also needs to be above the flap after the flap opens up. So you should split the flap layer (command+shift+d) and position the second flap behind the letter. You will need to time the letter’s emergence and animation to not intersect strangely with the flap.Step 7You can create the second half of the flopping letter by duplicating and flipping the first letter and then time reversing its keyframes so the rectangle moves from revealing only a line at the top of the “paper” to the straight rectangle section. I recommend parenting the second paper to the first so when you keyframe the paper’s position, the two move together. Then, it’s a matter of lining up the timing so that as the paper appears to come out and flop over, it continues that motion in the second layer. You will need to alter the graph editor by easing their keyframes to give it a pleasing motion. But, once they’re lined up right, the trick is complete!You will want the paper to change position to rise up a little as it flops. You can set keyframes for the position to make that happen. Just remember to ease your keyframes so it doesn’t look jerky.Step 8The last thing to do is add some embellishments. Now that the whole piece is moving around and animating on as you would expect, I recommend putting a burst of some kind at the start when the write on of the circle and envelope end. You can make a burst using shape layers by animating a rectangle from size and position 0,0 out to size 0,55 and position 0,-375 over about 10 frames and ease the keyframes. In the middle of those keyframes, however, you’ll want the size to be 0,155 and position to be 0,170 — and set the middle keyframes to “auto bezier,” which you can do by holding alt and clicking the keyframe until it becomes a circle. Then go into the graph editor and change the influence handles of the first keyframes to 0%. This causes a nice burst on.Then you just need to use the repeater to make an array of 6 of these changing their rotation to 60 degrees. I then duplicate a group containing all those rotating at 30 degrees and scaling it up. But then you have two different strokes from the scale. So you should remove the stroke from one of the groups and drag the other stroke below the two groups. This applies the stroke to the contents of the groups after transformation so it won’t deform the stroke at all. Next, you can set it to round, 10 pixels thick, and give it a dash of 20, a gap of 30, and a dash of 60 to complete the look. Line up this layer with the envelope’s completion, and it really calls attention to the frame. You may want to trim the layer down so you don’t need to see the first few frames and only get the exciting bits of the animation.I highly recommend watching the video tutorial to get all the step-by-step nuances. And if you had trouble with the tutorial, download the project file and really dive in.Do you have tips about line art animation? Share in the comments.last_img read more

CraveTV Kicks Off the New Year with Iconic SHOWTIME Series DEXTER CraveTV

first_imgAdvertisement Facebook Advertisement Login/Register With: Advertisement All 8 seasons and 96 episodes of SHOWTIME hit series DEXTER begins streaming Sunday, Jan. 1Slavery-era drama UNDERGROUND begins streaming Friday, Jan. 6Led by Jason Momoa (GAME OF THRONES, Justice League), FRONTIER brings to life a thrilling and original depiction of Canada’s ruthless fur trade, streaming Friday, Jan. 20The first look of CTV’s new six-part serialized drama CARDINAL premieres Tuesday, 24 in a special CraveTV First Look, 24 hours ahead of the CTV broadcast premiereSeason 1 of the gripping drama series OUTSIDERS launches Friday, Jan. 6 and Season 2 begins streaming Tuesday, 24 New episodes of SHOWTIME’s Golden Globe®-winning series THE AFFAIR available, leading up to the Season 3 finale, Sunday, 27 at 10 p.m. ETMusic titles COBAIN: MONTAGE OF HECK from HBO, critically acclaimed Rod Howard’s documentary THE BEATLES: 8 DAYS A WEEK – THE TOURING YEARS, and live concert special THE ROLLING STONES: HAVANA MOON, all begin streaming Friday, 27This month in CraveTV history:The series premiere of HBO’s crime drama series THE SOPRANOS premiered January 10, 1999 (HBO/ Dramas)The critically acclaimed comedy series BROAD CITY premiered January 22, 2014 (Comedies, If You Liked Sex and the City, Sitcoms)Documentary series PENN & TELLER: BULLSH*T premiered January 24, 2003 (The SHOWTIME Collection, Documentaries)The Beatles’ rooftop concert at Apple Corps was the final public performance of the English rock band, January 30, 1969 (Documentaries, Music) Last Chance programming:Titles rotating off the service this month include: THE FOLLOWING (January 7) and BATTLESTAR GALATICA (January 8) JANUARY’S SCHEDULE:Information about CraveTV’s January lineup is outlined below; titles are listed in order of streaming start dates. CraveTV adds new programming every week on #iCraveFridays:Sunday, Jan. 1DEXTER – Seasons 1-8 (The SHOWTIME Collection, Crime & Mystery, Dramas)Dexter Morgan (Michael C. Hall, SIX FEET UNDER) is everyone’s favourite serial killer. As a Miami forensics expert, he spends his days solving crimes, and nights committing them. But Dexter lives by a strict code of honour that is both his saving grace and lifelong burden. Torn between his deadly compulsion and his desire for true happiness, Dexter is a man in profound conflict with the world and himself.10 p.m. ET – THE AFFAIR – Season 3, Episode 6 (The SHOWTIME Collection, Crime & Mystery, Dramas)Noah’s (Dominic West) unexplained absence sends Helen (Maura Tierney) on a journey of increasingly troublesome discoveries. Noah’s compelled to return to a place he’s spent his life trying to escape. He attempts to repair his relationship with Martin (Jake Siciliano) with the sense that time is quickly running out. Friday, Jan. 6THE MELTDOWN WITH JONAH AND KUMAIL – Season 3 (Stand-Up Comedy, Comedies)Based on the popular live show, THE MELTDOWN WITH JONAH AND KUMAIL features comedy icons and up-and-comers performing in the back of a comic book shop. Hosts Jonah Ray (TRIP TANK) and Kumail Nanjiani (SILICON VALLEY) welcome the best comedians around the world as they experiment with new bits onstage and hang out backstage. The premiere episode features sets from Jay Larson, Byron Bowers, Brian Posehn, and Wild Horses (Lauren Lapkus, Erin Whitehead, Mary Holland, and Stephanie Allyne).UNDERGROUND – Season 1 (Dramas, Historic TV)This ten-episode, one-hour series follows a group of courageous plantation slaves who attempt one of the greatest escapes in history and break free, despite the dire consequences that await them on the other side. UNDERGROUND’s strong cast includes Jurnee Smollett-Bell (TRUE BLOOD, FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS) as sheltered house slave Rosalee; Aldis Hodge (Straight Outta Compton) as the driven Noah; Marc Blucas (BUFFY THE VAMPIRE SLAYER) as abolitionist lawyer John Hawkes; Reed Diamond (AGENTS OF S.H.I.E.L.D) as plantation owner Tom Macon; and Christopher Meloni (LAW & ORDER: SPECIAL VICTIMS UNIT) as the secretive August Pullman. Season 2 of UNDERGROUND is slated to premiere in March 2017 on Bravo.CraveTV Original OUTSIDERS, Season 1 (Dramas, Crime & Mystery)OUTSIDERS explores the epic struggle between the Farrell Clan, who have lived atop the rugged Shay Mountain for over two hundred years, and their battle to defend their land and their way of life from the town below and anyone who would dare to challenge them.Sunday, Jan. 8 10 p.m. ET – THE AFFAIR – Season 3, Episode 7 (The SHOWTIME Collection, Crime & Mystery, Dramas)Helen gives Noah the help he needs, though the cost might be too high. At his weakest moment, Noah’s world has never seemed more hostile or bewildering. A vital moment of release turns into something that can’t be undone.Friday, Jan. 13J. COLE FOREST HILLS DRIVE: HOMECOMING (The HBO Collection, Music)One of music’s biggest stars returns home to Fayetteville, North Carolina. Part concert film, part backstage pass, the special tells J. Cole’s compelling life story through his own words and music, and through the observations of those who know him best.REIGN – Season 3 (Teen Drama, Historic TV, Dramas, All-Canadian)In Season 3, Queen Mary (Adelaide Kane) struggles to hold on to her power in Scotland amidst Queen Elizabeth’s (Rachel Skarsten) campaign to sabotage her with the help of a new ally in Queen Catherine (Megan Follows). Meanwhile, with Francis’ (Toby Regbo) fate at odds and Elizabeth distracted by temptation in her first love, Robert Dudley (Charlie Carrick), both queens struggle to rule.TOSH.0 – Season 8 – Episodes 21-30 (Comedies, For Letterkenny Fans)With razor sharp wit and biting commentary, comedian Daniel Tosh delves into all aspects of the Internet from the absolutely absurd to the incredibly ingenious in this topical series. In addition, the series features viral clips of the week and original videos created by and starring well-known actors and comedians.Sunday, Jan. 1510 p.m. ET – THE AFFAIR – Season 3, Episode 8 (The SHOWTIME Collection, Crime & Mystery, Dramas)An unexpected event gives Alison (Ruth Wilson) reason to celebrate, while also provoking a sobering realization. Soon after, a startling warning leaves her considering the unthinkable. Cole’s (Joshua Jackson) frustrations with Alison come to a head, ultimately producing a personal deconstruction, and a radical truth.Friday, Jan. 20FRONTIER – Season 1 (Discovery, Dramas, Historic TV, All-Canadian)Rooted in Canadian history and explored for the first time on television, the action-packed and authentic fiction series follows the chaotic and violent struggle to control wealth and power in the North American fur trade of the late 18th century. Told from multiple perspectives, FRONTIER takes place in a world where business negotiations might be resolved with close-quarter hatchet fights, and where delicate relations between Aboriginal tribes and Europeans can spark bloody conflicts. Stars Jason Momoa, Landon Liboiron (HEMLOCK GROVE, DEGRASSI), Alun Armstrong (NEW TRICKS, Braveheart), Zoe Boyle (DOWNTON ABBEY, SONS OF ANARCHY), and Allan Hawco (REPUBLIC OF DOYLE).CHINA 2000 BC – THE RISE AND FALL OF DYNASTIES IN ACIENT CHINA (Discovery, Documentaries)Ahead of Chinese New Year, THE RISE AND FALL OF DYNASTIES IN ACIENT CHINA documents from 2000 B.C and 221 B.C., many civilizations developed in the area now known as China, each with its own distinct language, culture, and food. Archeological discoveries provide clues about how exactly these civilizations merged into one culture.NOT SAFE WITHN NIKKI GLASER – Season 1, Episodes 11-20 (Comedies, If You Liked Sex and the City…)It’s safe to say Nikki Glaser is in love with sex talk. In her show, the self-proclaimed “curious perv” provides an open, honest, shameless, and salacious stand-up comedic performance. Sunday, Jan. 2210 p.m. ET – THE AFFAIR – Season 3, Episode 9 (The SHOWTIME Collection, Crime & Mystery, Dramas)Helen’s escape to Montauk exacerbates her guilt and hastens an identity crisis. Noah’s world collapses, and he is left to process something horrific.Tuesday, Jan. 24CRAVETV FIRST LOOK: CARDINAL – Season 1, Episode 1 “Cardinal” (Dramas, Crime & Mystery, All-Canadian)Detective John Cardinal (Billy Campbell, THE KILLING) is brought back to the Homicide Unit when the body of a missing girl is discovered. Reluctant to return to the case that got him demoted, and new partner Detective Lise Delorme (Karine Vanasse, REVENGE), Cardinal’s belief that he is dealing with a serial killer soon draws him back in.OUTSIDERS, Season 2, Episode 1 (Dramas, Crime & Mystery)In the second season of action-packed drama OUTSIDERS, the struggle for power and control continues in the rugged hills of Appalachia as the conflict between the clan and the town escalates with the Farrells becoming more isolated than ever before. The uneasy truce that had generally existed between the townspeople and the Farrell clan came to an end as Big Coal interests headed up the mountain and the standoff at the end of Season 1 continues to have repercussions, putting everyone to the test as they’re forced to face new challenges and enemies.Friday, Jan. 27 THE BEATLES: 8 DAYS A WEEK: THE TOURING YEARS (Documentaries, Music)February 9, 1964, 8:12 p.m. ET – after a brief commercial break, four young men from Liverpool step onto the Ed Sullivan stage, changing culture forever. Seventy-three million people watched The Beatles perform that night, the largest audience in television history. It was an event that united a nation and signaled the birth of youth culture as we know it today.COBAIN: MONTAGE OF HECK (HBO, Documentaries, Music)This HBO documentary uncovers a wealth of new material that exposes the emotional rollercoaster of Nirvana’s lead man Kurt Cobain’s personal life. It celebrates his uncompromising creative spirit, including the inspiration for the film’s title, a circa-1988 sound collage he titled Montage of Heck. Recorded by Cobain on a four-track cassette recorder, it’s a free-form mash-up of song bites, manipulated radio recordings, elements of demos, and disparate sounds.THE ROLLING STONES: HAVANA MOON (Music)The Rolling Stones go down in Cuban history as they become the first rock band to play a free outdoor concert to hundreds of thousands in Havana. THE ROLLING STONES: HAVANA MOON, it’s a companion to documentary THE ROLLING STONES OLE OLE OLE!: A TRIP ACROSS LATIN AMERICA, currently streaming on CraveTV.WHITNEY CUMMINGS: I’M YOUR GIRLFRIEND (The HBO Collection, Comedies, Stand-Up Comedy)Comedian and actor Whitney Cummings dishes up an hour of audacious adult humour taped in front of a live audience at The Broad Stage in Santa Monica.SHARKNADO THE 4TH AWAKENS (Sci-Fi & Fantasy, Dramas)Fin (Ian Ziering), his family and the cosmos have been blissfully sharknado-free in the five years since the most recent attack, but now sharks and tornadoes are being whipped up in unexpected ways and places.Sunday, Jan. 2910 p.m. ET – THE AFFAIR – Season 3, Episode 10 **Season Finale**Noah’s visit to Paris provides Juliette (Irène Jacob) with a distraction from unpleasant realities at home, but subsequent tragedy brings her true priorities into sharper focus. A chance encounter offers Noah the possibility of healing a relationship in desperate need of repair.Tuesday, Jan. 31CRAVETV FIRST LOOK: CARDINAL – Season 1 Episode 2 As the Algonquin Bay Police Department attempts to make amends with the community for the botched investigation into Katie Pine’s disappearance, Detective Lise Delorme (Karine Vanasse, REVENGE) risks exposure of her investigation in an attempt to catch Detective John Cardinal (Billy Campbell, THE KILLING) in the act of a crime. Meanwhile, the killer zeroes in on his next victim.OUTSIDERS, Season 2, Episode 2 (Dramas, Crime & Mystery)Episodic information currently unavailable. LEAVE A REPLY Cancel replyLog in to leave a comment Twitterlast_img read more